News Analysis
Ottawa may be walking into a trap by seeking a “strategic partnership” with China, which is losing energy suppliers like Venezuela under U.S. control and could pull Canada into its orbit for resources and away from its allies, longtime China analyst Sheng Xue warns.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has said his government is pursuing a “strategic partnership” with Beijing, as he and several of his cabinet ministers have been meeting with Chinese officials throughout his visit in Beijing in an effort to build closer relations between the two countries.
Sheng, a Toronto-based journalist and pro-democracy activist, told The Epoch Times that Canada “may be falling into a clearly visible strategic trap” by entering into key agreements with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
“Currently, the CCP is losing multiple key energy and political pillars simultaneously,” Sheng said.
Sheng added that with the instability of the Venezuelan regime after the recent events involving the United States, as well as the “severe internal turmoil” of the Iranian regime, Beijing “urgently needs to find new sources of energy and raw materials that are politically low-cost, resource-stable, and can be packaged as ‘normal cooperation.’”
Canada’s vast reserves of energy, food, and critical minerals offer exactly these conditions, she said, adding that Canada is also “politically constrained by a legacy of moral self-restraint and globalist narratives,” making it easy to label Canada as a “rational cooperative partner.”
Sheng says that Canada risks undermining cooperation with its allies by developing deeper relations with the CCP, particularly at a time when the United States is seeking to drive out the influence of CCP from the Western hemisphere, as it did in Venezuela.
Venezuela remained “economically viable largely because the Chinese Communist regime purchases the majority of its oil exports and provides critical financial and political support,” Sheng said. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the U.S. administration had concerns about turning Venezuela into an “operating hub” for countries like Iran, Russia, or China.
Sheng said that if Canada becomes an alternative supplier for the CCP in energy and resources it will be “passively dragged” into the CCP’s resource allocation network and damage its strategic trust with allies. This could undermine Canada’s credibility within the Five Eyes and the North American defence system, she added.
Sheng also said that the issue with Carney’s visit to China is not his engagement with Beijing in general, but how the relationship has been framed and his choice of words “at a critical historical juncture.”
“This is not pragmatism; it is a dangerous strategic regression,” she said.
A Shift in Terminology
Carney’s wording around Ottawa’s relationship with Beijing has shifted from before the election, when he said China was Canada’s “biggest security threat,” to now saying Canada is entering a “new era of relations with China” and a “strategic partnership.” He also said in Beijing that he believes the progress Canada and China have made in their partnership “sets us up well for the new world order.”
These comments have been met with criticism by the Conservatives and China watchers. Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre said the federal government must explain how its tone on China has changed so drastically, while Conservative MP Shuv Majumdar said Canada “does not belong in Beijing’s ‘New World Order.’”
Sheng said the use of such terms in Beijing constitutes a “serious opposition” to the values and strategic intentions of the Western world.
“The CCP is not a state improving its human rights record, obeying international rules, or reducing external threats; it is an authoritarian regime systematically destroying freedom, human rights, and international order, with numerous crimes against humanity still ongoing,” Sheng said.
Mehmet Tohti, executive director of the Canada-based Uyghur Rights Advocacy Project, also commented on Carney’s use of such terminology, saying “China is not and cannot be our strategic partner.”
“We, Canadians can not be in the same orbit with China under ‘New World Order,’” Tohti wrote in a Jan. 16 post on X.
Ahead of the visit, Tohti said in a Jan. 13 post that the Carney government needed to approach the China visit with “sober realism ensuring engagement should be cautious, guarded, and anchored in a clear understanding of China’s long-term objectives.”
He wrote, “Beijing’s approach to international relations is transactional and opportunistic, guided by perceived advantage rather than mutual trust.”
Conservative MPs have also criticized how Ottawa is promoting the trip, including creating videos with dramatic music and posting them on the government’s social media pages.
Sheng said such promotion reveals a “typical globalist technocratic mindset.” Although there has been discussions on increased “communication, pragmatism, climate cooperation, and economic stability” between the two countries, there has also been an avoidance of issues like “hostage diplomacy, election interference, transnational repression, and long-term infiltration carried out by the CCP against Canada,” she added.
Deals, Agreements
The China visit has yielded “almost no results of strategic certainty for Canada at a substantive level,” Sheng said, saying the visit has instead provided the CCP with returns “far exceeding its negotiation costs.”
Ottawa announced on Jan. 16 that Canada is reducing tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles from 100 percent duties to 6.1 percent for up to 49,000 vehicles. As part of the deal, the Prime Minister’s Office said it expects China to lower tariffs on Canadian canola from 85 percent to 15 percent by March 1 “until at least the end of this year.”
Ontario Premier Doug Ford reacted negatively to the deal between Ottawa and Beijing, saying China will now have a “foothold” in the Canadian market, while Poilievre said there is “no guarantee that tariffs on canola and other Canadian goods will be permanently, immediately, or completely eliminated.”
The Global Automakers of Canada said in a Jan. 16 statement that its members are “concerned that this announcement just adds one more piece of uncertainty into a highly uncertain environment for the automotive industry.”
Meanwhile, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, whose province has been severely affected by Chinese tariffs on canola, welcomed the deal, calling it a “very positive signal that will restore existing trade volumes and open avenues for further opportunities for Canadians.”
Ottawa has also signed at least eight other agreements with Beijing in the areas of “energy, combatting crime, modern wood construction, culture, and food safety and plant and animal health.” The agreements and deals come as part of “a new strategic partnership” between the two countries, the PMO said.
Sheng said the “progress” of the visit is not reflected in specific agreements, concessions, or commitments, but rather in “language, posture, and political characterization.” She said slashing tariffs on Chinese EVs and intending to provide energy to China are “precisely the resources the CCP most desperately needs in its current international predicament.”
Noé Chartier and Omid Ghoreishi contributed to this report.
