The top seeds will look to establish themselves after a week off against teams riding momentum from big fourth-quarter comeback wins.
The Divisional Round will be hard-pressed to match the wildness of Wild Card weekend with four one-score games.
Regardless, this weekend’s matchups deliver eight battle-tested teams determined to keep their seasons going. None of these teams has fewer than 11 wins, and that doesn’t always happen. It’s also a very different-looking Divisional Round than last year, with five new teams.
Two of the three returning teams are looking to get past the Divisional Round this time. Meanwhile, the top seeds will look to establish themselves after a week off against teams riding momentum from big fourth-quarter comeback wins.
Buffalo Bills (12–5) at Denver Broncos (14–3)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS
The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league, but the Broncos will need the offense to step up at home to beat the Bills.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix will make his first career playoff start, and it’s the second consecutive playoff game for the Bills to face a first-time playoff starter. It didn’t go smoothly for the Bills last week when Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence led his team to 24 points and a fourth-quarter lead, but the Bills’ secondary made the game-sealing play for the win.
Denver won’t want to get into a shootout with Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who has consistently shown playoff moxie. That said, the Broncos could make the Bills one-dimensional with one of the best run defenses in the league, but the Broncos will need to slow down Bills star running back James Cook.
San Francisco 49ers (12–5) at Seattle Seahawks (14–3)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on FOX
NFC West rivals San Francisco and Seattle meet again for the second time in three weeks.
San Francisco will look to perform exponentially better on offense than the three-point effort in Week 18, but the 49ers don’t have star tight end George Kittle due to injury. The 49ers offense stepped up at Philadelphia in the Wild Card round, but the Seahawks have a strong defense overall.
Niners quarterback Brock Purdy will need to make the most of his mobility and get the ball to star running back Christian McCaffrey in space. Seattle will likely blitz often again, and the 49ers’ offensive line will need to step up and give Purdy adequate time.
Defensively, the 49ers get a boost with linebacker Fred Warner back, and the Niners defense could swing Saturday’s game. Seattle has a strong running attack with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, but Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has never won a playoff game.
In addition, his lone playoff game with the Minnesota Vikings last season begged the question of whether a team should pay him $100 million or more in free agency.
Seattle took that chance, and now Darnold has his best chance to prove himself as a franchise quarterback.
Houston Texans (12–5) at New England Patriots (14–3)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC
The Patriots return to a familiar place after a seven-year hiatus from the Divisional Round.
For New England to advance further, it will take solving the Texans’ ferocious pass rush. Pittsburgh had no answer for the Texans’ defense in the Wild Card round and mustered only six points.
Houston notably had the most dominant win of any playoff team thus far, and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is only making his second postseason start. Maye didn’t light it up against a strong Los Angeles Chargers defense in the Wild Card round, and he will need to make plays with his legs against the Texans to have a chance.
Conversely, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will get a tough defense in the Patriots. Just ask Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who could only lead his team to three points in Foxborough.
Los Angeles Rams (12–5) at Chicago Bears (11–6)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC
If not for the Rams’ defense, this game could easily be a wild shootout, but the game will hinge on whether the Bears can overcome that.
Chicago has momentum after rallying big against the Green Bay Packers, and quarterback Caleb Williams can make plays with his mobility. In addition, if running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai perform big, it could be a tough evening for the Rams’ run defense.
Conversely, the Bears’ defense has a tall order slowing down Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and company. Stafford is playing like an MVP, and wide receiver Puka Nacua is hard to stop. The Bears don’t have a great pass defense, and that unit will need at least a repeat of last weekend’s fourth quarter, but probably more, to beat the Rams.
